Friday, August 29, 2008

The Trouble with Polls...

I've been hearing a lot of- "well McCain and Obama are in a dead heat according to the polls" "I wonder if Obama has a chance" etc.
I don't blame people for thinking this- most polls do say its a close tie. BUT- consider this:

1. Barack is ahead in almost all the polls.
2. Due to the nature of polling- and due to the fact that they only poll those who have voted in the past two elections- The polls can never be trusted.
3. They especially can't be trusted this election because of all the new, first time young voters who will overwhelmingly vote Obama.

SO, in conclusion, don't be fooled by the polls and don't let the media tell you what to believe.

Change is coming- the ground is stirring- the majority of Americans want Change. And they'll have it.
Have HOPE- Believe in Barack and Believe in yourselves. :)
Obama Can't Lose.

The Trouble With Polls- TIME Article

"Take polling, please. The vast majority of Americans--as many as 90%, pollsters have told me privately--refuse to answer questions when the wizard calls (although the number is marginally better this hot election year). People who use cell phones exclusively, mostly younger voters, are unreachable. The wizards say they can correct for these things, by "weighting" their polls--that is, giving disproportionate weight to members of underrepresented groups like young people. But surely that makes polling less scientific and more speculative. It means polls should be trusted only to verify broad shifts Bush moved ahead in the presidential race after the Republican Convention rather than specific point spreads."


Here is the only Poll data worth reading- It's from, they take the average of all the polls. Currently Barack is up 3.8 points.

But just to reiterate- take polls for what they are- SPECULATION.

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